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Table of Contents

  1. Topic pack - Marketing - introduction
  2. 4.1 The role of marketing - notes
  3. 4.1 The role of marketing - questions
  4. 4.2 Marketing Planning - notes
    1. Marketing planning
    2. The marketing mix
    3. The Total Product Concept
    4. Ethics of marketing
    5. Marketing audit
    6. Porter's five forces
    7. Porter's five forces - activities
    8. Marketing objectives
    9. Market research - introduction
    10. The role of market research
    11. Primary and secondary research
    12. Primary research - information gathering techniques
    13. Observations - case studies
    14. Group-based market research
    15. Market research - summary
    16. Questionnaires
    17. Sampling
    18. Methods of sampling - introduction
    19. Main methods of sampling
    20. Sampling errors
    21. Market segmentation
    22. Consumer Profiles
    23. Types of segments
    24. Demographic segmentation
    25. Psychographic segmentation
    26. Psychographic segmentation - case study
    27. Geographic segmentation
    28. Industrial markets
    29. Targeting
    30. Positioning
    31. Corporate image
    32. Position/perception maps
    33. Unique selling point/proposition USP
    34. Marketing strategies and tactics
    35. Sales forecasting
    36. Qualitative forecasting/data
    37. Forecasting and correlation
    38. Forecasting techniques
    39. Constructing time-series analysis
    40. Moving average
    41. Four point moving average - worked example
    42. Identifying the seasonal variation
  5. 4.2 Marketing planning - questions
  6. 4.3 Product introduction - notes
  7. 4.3 Product - questions
  8. 4.3 Product - simulations and activities
  9. 4.4 Price - notes
  10. 4.4 Price - questions
  11. 4.4 Price - simulations and activities
  12. 4.4 Promotion - notes
  13. 4.5 Promotion - questions
  14. 4.6 Place (distribution) - notes
  15. 4.7 International marketing - notes
  16. 4.7 International marketing - questions
  17. 4.8 E-commerce - notes
  18. 4.8 E-commerce - questions
  19. Printable version

Constructing time-series analysis

How do we construct a time series analysis? Very carefully, is the answer, especially when it comes to drawing conclusions! The main methods used are:

  • Free hand sketching
  • Moving averages

Freehand sketching

This is self-explanatory. Plot the data and fit the 'best' line by eye. This method is not as useless as it looks. It gives a first approximation, and may also be the best that can be done.

Be very careful when a pattern that has become established changes. Look at the sales forecast below.

trends1

Figure 3 Possible sales forecast

Sales and profits have risen for years, but suddenly there is a fall. Is it an error, a blip, or what? What will be the forecast for next year? Will it be A or B? The message is watch carefully, and analyse even more carefully what happened last year. It is too easy to read into the forecast what you want to see, and then justify it.

Click on the right arrow at the top or bottom of the page to look at the second of these techniques - moving average.